15 million ten year old cars on Britain's roads by 2027
More than 15.4m 10-year-old cars on the road by 2027 due to COVID supply chain crunch
A record 15.4m cars on Britain’s roads – 40% of the total – will be more than 10 years old by 2027, according to new Auto Trader research.
The online marketplace’s forecasts, based on DVLA figures, suggest drivers behind the wheel of an extra 3.6 million decade-old cars compared to 2021, due to the lingering after-effects of car production disrupted by the pandemic.
Shortages of semiconductors and other parts has left 2m “missing” cars on the road compared to pre-pandemic trends, according to Auto Trader data.
Its forecasts signal the number of decade-old cars is set to rise from 7.2m to 9.2m by 2027, while the number of cars more than 15 years old is also predicted to jump by a third to 6.2 million.
The impact of the shortages has pushed up the average cost of a 10-year-old car in the UK by more than £2000 since before the pandemic to above £6,000
Auto Trader’s online marketplace shows the average asking price for a ten-year-old car hit £6,176 in September, up 53% on three years ago.
The data shows a big jump in drivers hunting for older vehicles on Auto Trader, after 51 million advert views for 10-year-old cars in September, up 22% on pre-Covid levels. The BMW 3 Series, Volkswagen Golf and Ford Fiesta are most popular decade-old models among would-be buyers.
Auto Trader forecasts, based on DVLA figures, suggest a record 15.4m cars on Britain’s roads will be over 10 years old within five years – 3.6m more than in 2021.
The aftermath of Covid means that around 40% of cars on the road will be more than 10 years old in the next five years. The sheer shortage of cars, combined with the practical necessity for drivers to stay on the road, is pushing prices higher. As long as those market dynamics remain in place, drivers will have to get used to paying more for older cars.
Auto Trader’s latest Retail Price Index data, which is based on daily pricing analysis of 900,000 vehicles, showed the average price of a used car was £17,409 in September, up 11.2% compared to 12 months earlier. The company’s data will be used by the Office for National Statistics in official inflation figures from next January.
Consumers can check the value of their car by using Auto Trader’s free valuation tool: https://www.autotrader.co.uk/cars/valuation
Top 10 Most viewed 10 - 15-year-old cars | September 2022
Top 10 price growth (all fuel types) | September 2022 vs September 2021 like-for-like
Top 10 price contraction (all fuel types) | September 2022 vs September 2021 like-for-like
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