Autotrader forecasts nearly 10.2 million new and used car transactions in 2026 as UK Car market continues to grow
The UK automotive retail market is expected to maintain its recovery through the remainder of 2026, with new analysis from Autotrader forecasting a combined 10.17 million new and used vehicle transactions this year, the highest level since 2019. Driven by a stronger-than-expected new car market and resilient used car demand, total volumes are forecast to increase 3.4% year-on-year (YoY), underscoring the resilience of the automotive market despite ongoing economic uncertainty.
New car recovery drives market growth
At the centre of the outlook is a significant uplift in the new car market. Autotrader now forecasts 2.21 million registrations in 2026, representing annual growth of 9.5% and placing the market ahead of previous expectations. According to the company’s analysis, that growth is being fuelled by increasing competition, with the continued arrival of new entrant brands encouraging more aggressive pricing and attractive offers across the market, helping to stimulate demand and drive sales. The ZEV Mandate is also helping to support electric vehicle volumes, with a slew of new, more affordable models in both the retail and fleet sectors.
The strength of the new car market is particularly notable given the economic uncertainty seen during much of the year. While consumer confidence has faced pressure, there have been more positive signs recently, with confidence in making major purchases reaching its strongest level since December 2021. Combined with affordability and growing consumer choice, the improving consumer backdrop is providing further support for a new car market already performing more strongly than many might have expected at the start of the year.
Used market demonstrates its resilience
Alongside the stronger new car outlook, the used car market is also forecast to grow in 2026. Autotrader expects used vehicle transactions to reach 7.95 million, up 1.9% YoY. While the percentage increase is more modest than that forecast for new cars, it represents healthy growth in a significantly larger, high-volume market, and would mark the highest annual volume of used car transactions since 2017.
Importantly, the increase in new car registrations is not expected to come at the expense of the used market. There will inevitably be some movement between nearly new and brand-new vehicles, particularly given the increasingly competitive offers available across the new car market. However, with both new and used transactions forecast to rise, Autotrader’s analysis points to an overall automotive market that is expanding rather than demand simply shifting from one part of it to another.
That growth is being achieved despite continued unevenness in used vehicle supply, with availability varying considerably across different age cohorts. However, continued turnover across the wider vehicle parc is maintaining transaction volumes, while today’s stronger new car market is expected to support a healthier flow of younger used stock in the years ahead.
Positive outlook for the remainder of 2026
Recent market performance reinforces the health of the used car sector, with cars continuing to sell quickly and like-for-like retail prices remaining broadly stable, highlighting the strength of underlying demand and providing further confidence for the months ahead.
The wider consumer backdrop is also showing positive signs. National consumer confidence recently reached a two-year high of -14, while car buying intent has remained particularly robust, with seven in ten consumers on Autotrader planning to purchase a vehicle within the next six months.
What’s particularly encouraging is that growth isn’t confined to one part of the market. New car registrations are recovering strongly but used car transactions are also increasing from what is already a very high base. That tells us the overall automotive market is growing, rather than new car demand simply taking sales away from the used market. “New car buyers are benefiting from intense competition, attractive offers and greater consumer choice, while the used market continues to demonstrate its resilience despite an uneven supply picture. With cars continuing to sell quickly, car-buying intent remaining robust and wider consumer confidence improving, there are genuine reasons to be positive about the outlook for the remainder of 2026.
Autotrader’s forecasts are based on its latest forecasting models, which combine established economic indicators with automotive market dynamics. The models have been refined this year to place greater emphasis on recent market behaviour and provide a robust, representative view of current conditions.
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