Press release

Electric sales set to overtake ICE by 2025 predicts Auto Trader

According to the latest analysis from Auto Trader, the sale of new electric vehicles (EVs) could overtake petrol and diesel sales by as early as 2025, whilst alternatively fuelled vehicles (AFV) more broadly, could pass them even earlier, in 2024.

The analysis[1] indicates that by 2025, EVs will account for around 10% of the total British car parc, and AFVs around 18%; by the time the government’s ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars comes into effect in 2030, they’re likely to represent as much as 30% and 40% respectively. Post the ban on internal combustion engine (ICE) sales in 2030 and then hybrid sales in 2035, it’s likely that, if assuming typical scrappage rates and exclude the exception of classic or collector cars, ICE vehicles will almost disappear from the car parc by the mid-2040s.

Highlighting the growing positive sentiment for electric and low emission cars, research conducted this week[2], showed that as many as 24% of consumers surveyed on Auto Trader are considering buying an alternatively fuelled vehicle (AFV), which is up from 16% in November 2020, and 13% from as recently as August 2020. The same survey revealed that 33% of those considering an EV or hybrid as their next purchase, were directly influenced by the prime minister’s announcement in November.

The levels of demand (based on searches and advert views on Auto Trader) for EVs increased by a massive 93% year-on-year (YoY) in November. Demand eased slightly in December, but remained high, increasing 78% YoY. In contrast, demand for petrol increased just 0.6% YoY last month, whilst diesel dropped -7.7%. The added level of consumer engagement through this period resulted in the number of new EV leads being sent to retailers growing 421% YoY and 413% in November and December respectively. EV leads in December accounted for as many as 11% of the total number of new car leads, up from just 4% recorded a year earlier.

 Electric demographic

Utilising Auto Trader’s audience demographics tool, the profile of an EV ‘intender’ clearly differs to that of the average car buyer on Auto Trader. They are typically older (33% are over 55, compared to just 23% of the Auto Trader average), more affluent (33% are in the +£75k income bracket, compared to 17% of the Auto Trader average), and live in wealthier postcodes, with the top five comprising: SW6, Fulham (16% above national average), NW3, Hampstead (+13%), M20, Didsbury (+10%), W4, Chiswick (+11%) and WA14, Hale (+10%).

In terms of which brands EV intenders are most interested in, Tesla remains the most desirable by some distance, accounting for 27% of electric car advert views in December, followed by Nissan (11%), Renault (8%), Volkswagen (8%), and BMW (7%).

Commenting, Auto Trader’s commercial director, Ian Plummer, said:We’ve based our projections quite conservatively on the current trajectory of AFVs and ICE vehicles in the market, as well as the trends we’re observing on our marketplace. Over the last few years we’ve seen consumer sentiment towards electric grow steadily, and whilst conversion from consideration to purchase remains relatively low, it is accelerating as the latest models become ever more attractive, while aspirational brands like Tesla help shift consumer perception. When they become more affordable and the required infrastructure improves, we’re confident we’ll see adoption levels increase significantly and rapidly.”

[1] Analysis is based on the current rate of adoption of new EVs and the subsequent impact on the car parc in Great Britain. It is also based on new diesel car sales declining to zero by 2026, and petrol’s share of new car sales falling at a constant rate to zero by 2030.

[2] On site survey of circa 600 consumers conducted 20th – 25th January 2021

Great to see DealerDesk utilising our API to enable retailers to instantly publish and update their Auto Trader adverts without the traditional wait for old-fashioned stock feeds! https://t.co/RyCrCG1fl0
August saw record levels of demand from consumers seeking out their next vehicle. But with supply issues continuing, what can you do to ensure your forecourt remains stocked to meet demand? Find out in our latest blog by @MarcThornboroug👇https://t.co/tUerFkP4Qf
Register for our next webinar where we’ll be exploring the latest in automotive logistics with special guest Thomas Mallet of Ecomotive Logistics. We’ll also be sharing our final step in addressing admin fees along with an update on the market 👉 https://t.co/GWNbgNrxVg https://t.co/SNIlt3nfcE
155,000 vehicles are underpriced on Auto Trader, meaning that there is a staggering amount of profit being missed out on by retailers. Find out more and what you can do to ensure you’re not leaving any profit on the table in this week’s tip of the week with @AndrewKorpela https://t.co/vj8Ux1Z2Jn
The popularity of electric vehicles continues to grow with the @Hyundai_UK IONIQ 5 being the most viewed new car on our platform over the last month. Will we see an electric vehicle top of the list next month and what needs to be done to sustain interest? Let us know👇 https://t.co/gNbRriDIiV
The @KiaUK Soul EV came out top among consumers looking for an EV that offers great value, taking the Best Value Electric Car at the Auto Trader New Car Awards 2021. https://t.co/LcVmx4kwKO
Demand for vans continues to increase with last month seeing the number of leads per new van on our marketplace grow a staggering 44% compared to August 2020, a new record. Overall van leads are also up by 30% vs 2020. https://t.co/6h2zt1D54r
On 22nd September we’ll complete our admin fees journey by adding the admin fee into the total advertised price and reflecting this in our valuations and price indicators. Find out more in our latest blog👇 https://t.co/ZVRpYhssAA
We're delighted to be supporting this year's @BenSupport4Auto Ben Ball taking place on the 8th Dec at the Roundhouse. There are now just a handful of tables left so be sure to book yours now to avoid missing out 👉https://t.co/6jC6ZaoEND https://t.co/zQCWD0JCRg
Our latest Monthly Market Intelligence report is now live. Check it out now to discover our latest new and used car market insights along a focus on EV pricing👉https://t.co/g8bPs1X6CE https://t.co/gB6Zh0p8rF

Auto Trader Group plc
Registered in England (Company number: 09439967)

Auto Trader Limited
Registered in England and Wales (Company number: 03909628)

Registered address:

1 Tony Wilson Place
Manchester
M15 4FN
VAT number: GB 614 8918 20

Keep in touch

We use social media to speak to the UK’s largest car buying audience