Press release

Electric sales set to overtake ICE by 2025 predicts Auto Trader

According to the latest analysis from Auto Trader, the sale of new electric vehicles (EVs) could overtake petrol and diesel sales by as early as 2025, whilst alternatively fuelled vehicles (AFV) more broadly, could pass them even earlier, in 2024.

The analysis[1] indicates that by 2025, EVs will account for around 10% of the total British car parc, and AFVs around 18%; by the time the government’s ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars comes into effect in 2030, they’re likely to represent as much as 30% and 40% respectively. Post the ban on internal combustion engine (ICE) sales in 2030 and then hybrid sales in 2035, it’s likely that, if assuming typical scrappage rates and exclude the exception of classic or collector cars, ICE vehicles will almost disappear from the car parc by the mid-2040s.

Highlighting the growing positive sentiment for electric and low emission cars, research conducted this week[2], showed that as many as 24% of consumers surveyed on Auto Trader are considering buying an alternatively fuelled vehicle (AFV), which is up from 16% in November 2020, and 13% from as recently as August 2020. The same survey revealed that 33% of those considering an EV or hybrid as their next purchase, were directly influenced by the prime minister’s announcement in November.

The levels of demand (based on searches and advert views on Auto Trader) for EVs increased by a massive 93% year-on-year (YoY) in November. Demand eased slightly in December, but remained high, increasing 78% YoY. In contrast, demand for petrol increased just 0.6% YoY last month, whilst diesel dropped -7.7%. The added level of consumer engagement through this period resulted in the number of new EV leads being sent to retailers growing 421% YoY and 413% in November and December respectively. EV leads in December accounted for as many as 11% of the total number of new car leads, up from just 4% recorded a year earlier.

 Electric demographic

Utilising Auto Trader’s audience demographics tool, the profile of an EV ‘intender’ clearly differs to that of the average car buyer on Auto Trader. They are typically older (33% are over 55, compared to just 23% of the Auto Trader average), more affluent (33% are in the +£75k income bracket, compared to 17% of the Auto Trader average), and live in wealthier postcodes, with the top five comprising: SW6, Fulham (16% above national average), NW3, Hampstead (+13%), M20, Didsbury (+10%), W4, Chiswick (+11%) and WA14, Hale (+10%).

In terms of which brands EV intenders are most interested in, Tesla remains the most desirable by some distance, accounting for 27% of electric car advert views in December, followed by Nissan (11%), Renault (8%), Volkswagen (8%), and BMW (7%).

Commenting, Auto Trader’s commercial director, Ian Plummer, said:We’ve based our projections quite conservatively on the current trajectory of AFVs and ICE vehicles in the market, as well as the trends we’re observing on our marketplace. Over the last few years we’ve seen consumer sentiment towards electric grow steadily, and whilst conversion from consideration to purchase remains relatively low, it is accelerating as the latest models become ever more attractive, while aspirational brands like Tesla help shift consumer perception. When they become more affordable and the required infrastructure improves, we’re confident we’ll see adoption levels increase significantly and rapidly.”

[1] Analysis is based on the current rate of adoption of new EVs and the subsequent impact on the car parc in Great Britain. It is also based on new diesel car sales declining to zero by 2026, and petrol’s share of new car sales falling at a constant rate to zero by 2030.

[2] On site survey of circa 600 consumers conducted 20th – 25th January 2021

Over 75% of all time spent on UK automotive sites is spent on Auto Trader. 20% more leads were delivered to retailers in 2021 than in 2020, a sign of strong buyer intent and the ever-increasing importance of online in the buying process. https://t.co/AySv9w7RwG
Over 75% of all time spent on UK automotive sites is spent on Auto Trader. 20% more leads were delivered to retailers in 2021 than in 2020, a sign of strong buyer intent and the ever-increasing importance of online in the buying process. https://t.co/YiU38W6Vc5
Our CEO Nathan Coe will be live on next week's webinar to answer your questions. You can submit your questions to him in the comments and when you register to join the webinar live at https://t.co/rdtNiD8APu https://t.co/d99VfhPofQ
Last week saw the 89th week of consecutive used car price growth, with prices rising 28.6% year-on-year. With used car prices continuing to rise it’s crucial to keep repricing your stock inline with the market to ensure you aren’t leaving profit on the table. https://t.co/MRHJVoNvzs
2021 was a record year for new electric vehicles on our marketplace which saw a record number of advert views in 2021, with 1 in 5 new car advert views now for an electric vehicle. What EVs do you think we'll see drawing the most attention in 2022? https://t.co/niblnnJaPl
Looking to evolve your business by breaking free of outdated data feeds and enabling your customers to have a real-time view of your digital forecourt? Then check out our ‘Essentials to connected retailing’ masterclass now 👉 https://t.co/VggO5GDvFa https://t.co/hRUW9aXDTf
We’re still faced with an element of uncertainty when it comes to the pandemic which means you need to be prepared for any eventuality. So in this week’s tip of the week, @AndrewKorpela shares some top tips on how to make sure you're prepared for whatever is thrown at you next. https://t.co/9cKawLT6Q9
In his latest update, our CEO Nathan Coe shares our latest market insights, including an analysis of consumer demand and pricing, and reveals our plans for 2022. https://t.co/oyxwpJf2U1
With record numbers of new electric vehicle sales and, as we reveal in our latest blog, an electric vehicle being the fastest selling of any used vehicle in 2021, last year really was a victory for voltage 👇 https://t.co/j4Al3nByBL
In our latest Monthly Market Intelligence Report, we analyse the 3 key trends that came to define the automotive industry in 2021, record demand, the growth in used car prices and the acceleration of EV adoption 👉https://t.co/tVW6vpQjxm Will these trends continue through 2022? https://t.co/rITl15odBm

Auto Trader Group plc
Registered in England (Company number: 09439967)

Auto Trader Limited
Registered in England and Wales (Company number: 03909628)

Registered address:

1 Tony Wilson Place
Manchester
M15 4FN
VAT number: GB 614 8918 20

Keep in touch

We use social media to speak to the UK’s largest car buying audience